Market Recap - CPI, earnings, and trade optimism drive markets to record highs

The stock market built on last week’s rebound with another broad advance, as investors rotated back into equities following the prior pullback.

he S&P 500 (+1.9%), Nasdaq Composite (+2.3%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+2.2%) all posted solid weekly gains, while the Russell 2000 (+2.5%) and S&P MidCap 400 (+2.3%) outperformed slightly, reflecting renewed appetite for cyclicals and smaller-cap exposure. Softer September CPI readings (0.3%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.4%) reinforced expectations for additional Fed rate cuts, pushing the major averages to record intraday and closing highs on Friday.

Leadership was broad but tilted toward growth-oriented and economically sensitive groups. The information technology sector (+2.8% WTD) paced the advance, supported by another strong week for semiconductor names. The energy sector (+2.4%) also outperformed alongside higher oil prices after Trump sanctioned several of Russia’s largest oil companies, while the industrials sector (+2.1%) joined in on earnings strength across its defense names.

Earnings updates added to the positive sentiment, with several large-cap companies delivering better-than expected results and guidance that reinforced confidence in corporate profitability heading into year-end. Meanwhile, trade-related headlines contributed to some midweek volatility after mixed signals from U.S. and Chinese officials regarding tariff policy, though markets ultimately looked past the uncertainty by week’s end.

Defensive sectors lagged, with consumer staples (-0.6%) and materials (-0.2%) sectors finishing the week lower, suggesting a modest risk-on tone.

Overall, the week’s gains reflected a continuation of post-pullback recovery momentum, with improving earnings sentiment and tempered trade concerns helping to sustain the market’s upward bias ahead of next week’s mega-cap earnings.

• Russell 2000: +2.5% WTD

• Nasdaq Composite: +2.3% WTD

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +2.3% WTD

• DJIA: +2.2% WTD

• S&P 500: +1.9% WTD

Market Recap- Market pulls back from record highs amid tensions with China

The stock market ended the week with its first meaningful pullback in months, as early week gains and record highs gave way to a broad‐based selloff on Friday.

The S&P 500 (‐2.4%), Nasdaq Composite (‐2.5%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (‐2.7%) all finished lower for the week, while smaller‐cap indices also retreated, with the Russell 2000 (‐3.3%) and S&P MidCap 400 (3.9%) underperforming. The recent cycle of “buy‐the‐dip to fresh record highs” was disrupted as investors reacted to renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

Mega‐cap technology and AI‐related names led the market higher earlier in the week. Advanced Micro Devices soared after announcing a multigigawatt partnership with OpenAI, while NVIDIA, Dell, and Microsoft also posted strong gains midweek, helping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite achieve record intraday and closing highs.

Tesla contributed to early‐week momentum with product teasers, though enthusiasm faded following a more modest‐than‐expected Model Y announcement on Tuesday.

The week’s later selloff was triggered by President Trump’s comments on China and Beijing’s tightening of export controls for rare earths, which reignited trade concerns and prompted broad risk‐off sentiment. The information technology (‐2.5%), consumer discretionary (‐3.3%), communication services, and materials (‐3.1%) sectors were among the hardest hit. The energy sector (‐4.0%) also suffered as crude oil prices fell on Friday, while defensive sectors were the lone bright spots: the utilities (+1.4%) and consumer staples (+0.6%) sectors finished the week with gains.

Friday’s selloff was widespread, with decliners outpacing advancers roughly 5‐to‐1, and marks the most significant macro‐driven pullback since sweeping tariff announcements in April. Treasuries rallied as equities sold off, with the 2‐year yield falling to 3.52% and the 10‐year settling at 4.05%, approaching September lows.

Market attention now shifts to corporate earnings and the potential implications of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, leaving investors to weigh risk appetite against defensive positioning as the market navigates this post‐record higher volatility environment.

• S&P 500: 2.4% WTD

• Nasdaq Composite: 2.5% WTD

• DJIA: 2.7% WTD

• Russell 2000: 3.3% WTD

• S&P Mid Cap 400: 3.9% WTD

Market Recap- Market marches to record highs amid shutdown and dovish Fed expectations

The major averages advanced further into record territory this week, shrugging off the ongoing government shutdown and positioning themselves for additional gains.

The S&P 500 (+1.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.3%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.1%) all notched new record highs, while smaller-cap indices like the Russell 2000 (+1.7%) outperformed.

Economic data provided a mixed backdrop but reinforced the market’s dovish Fed expectations. The September ADP Employment Change reported a decline of 32K private sector jobs (Briefing.com consensus: 40K). Job openings increased to 7.227 million in August, and housing data remained soft. Notably, some economic data, including Friday’s September Employment Situation Report, was not released due to the government shutdown. Overall, the data, combined with Fed commentary, bolstered expectations for further rate cuts this year. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 94.6% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the October FOMC meeting and an 85.1% chance of an additional cut in December.

Sector performance this week highlighted notable outperformance in health care (+6.8% WTD), fueled by continued gains in Pfizer after the TrumpRx initiative, Humana following positive Medicare Advantage guidance, and other large-cap peers. The information technology sector (+2.3%) also contributed to market leadership, aided by strength in chipmakers and NVIDIA’s record-setting week. Tesla helped support the consumer discretionary sector (-0.8%), though it lagged late in the week after reporting Q3 deliveries. The utilities sector (+2.4%) also outperformed, while energy (-3.4%) faced headwinds from OPEC+ production expectations and lower crude oil prices.

T he market’s resilience, record highs, and dovish Fed expectations dominated the week’s narrative, reinforcing confidence that additional easing could provide further tailwinds for equities heading into earnings season.

Market Recap- Stocks dance in record territory

U.S. equities had a choppy week marked by alternating record highs and pullbacks, as enthusiasm over tech and AI headlines early on gave way to valuation concerns, Fed commentary, and stronger-than-expected economic data.

T he S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh records Monday, led by NVIDIA, Apple, and Oracle on AI- and TikTok related news, but mega-cap weakness drove three straight midweek declines.

Investor doubts over NVIDIA’s OpenAI partnership and resilient labor/economic data briefly dampened expectations for further Fed cuts, weighing on sentiment. Materials and consumer-related names saw notable pressure midweek, while energy was a standout gainer on rising crude prices. Friday brought a rebound as strong income and spending data supported growth hopes, helping most sectors finish higher and ending the week with only modest losses for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Overall, markets remain near record highs but are grappling with stretched valuations, shifting Fed expectations, and policy risks including tariffs and a possible government shutdown.

• Nasdaq Composite -0.7% WTD

• Russell 2000 -0.6% WTD

• S&P Midcap 400 -0.5% WTD

• S&P 500 -0.3% WTD

• Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.2% WTD

Market Recap-Fed easing optimism prompts record-setting week

The stock market ended the week on a strong note, driven by renewed clarity on monetary policy following Wednesday’s FOMC decision.

As widely expected, the Fed cut the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00–4.25%, leaving markets focused on updated guidance for further easing. Officials remain split on the pace of additional cuts this year: nine project one more, ten forecast two, and one anticipates none. Following the announcement, CME FedWatch probabilities for a 25-basis point cut in October rose to 91.9%, with a December cut now at 80.6%.

Mega-cap leadership continued to drive broad market gains, with the S&P 500 (+1.2%), Nasdaq Composite (+2.2%), and DJIA (+1.1%) capturing fresh record intraday and closing highs. The Russell 2000 (+2.2%) was a standout, eclipsing its prior intraday record from November 2024 and its record closing high from November 2021, reflecting strong small-cap appetite amid supportive policy expectations. The S&P MidCap 400 (+0.1%) advanced more modestly.

Sector performance was led by communication services (+3.4%) and information technology (+2.1%) sectors, fueled by gains in Alphabet (+4.0% WTD) and Apple (+3.6% WTD). The consumer discretionary sector (+1.5%) also captured a nice gain. In contrast, consumer staples (-1.3%), real estate (-1.4%), and materials (-0.9%) sectors lagged.

Economic data released this week offered a mixed backdrop. Retail Sales for August (+0.6%; Briefing. com consensus: +0.3%) and Industrial Production for August (+0.1%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.0%) pointed to continued consumer and manufacturing activity, while Housing Starts for August (-8.5%; Briefing.com consensus: 1.375M) and Building Permits for August (-3.7%; Briefing.com consensus: 1.312M) reflected affordability pressures. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 13 declined to 231,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 245,000), and the Philadelphia Fed Index for September surged to 23.2 (Briefing.com consensus: 3.0), signaling stronger regional manufacturing growth.

Overall, the week was defined by record highs for large and small caps, broad outperformance in mega-cap tech, and market optimism for further Fed easing. The Russell 2000’s strong performance highlighted continued risk appetite, while macro data provided context for the Fed’s guidance and the pace of future rate adjustments.

• Nasdaq Composite: +2.2% WTD

• Russell 2000 +2.2% WTD

• S&P 500: +1.2% WTD

• DJIA: +1.1% WTD

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +0.1% WTD

Market Recap - Mega-Cap Leadership and Rate Cut Optimism Fuel Record Highs

The stock market posted a broadly positive week, led by gains in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+2.0%) and the S&P 500 (+1.6%), while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.0%) and smaller-cap indices finished with more modest results.

The Russell 2000 (+0.3%) and S&P MidCap 400 (-0.4%) underperformed, highlighting the market’s reliance on mega-cap strength. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (+0.3%) lagged the market-weighted index, further underscoring the influence of the largest components.

The information technology sector (+3.1%) was the standout sector this week, fueled by strong moves in the mega-cap cohort and broad optimism in semiconductor names.

Oracle’s (+25.5%) remarkable mid-week surge following its RPO update propelled the technology sector and created volatility across the “magnificent seven,” emphasizing the outsized influence of single company moves. Tesla (+12.9%) and Broadcom (+7.5%) were among other notable mega-cap moves. In other corporate news, Paramount Skydance’s (+25.3%) potential acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (+55.8%) propelled both stocks higher despite regulatory concerns.

Economic data reinforced expectations of a continued easing cycle. While the August PPI print came in slightly hotter than expected (0.4%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%), and Core CPI met expectations at 0.3%, a 27,000 spike in initial jobless claims to 263,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 240,000), their highest level since October 2021, bolstered the market’s current rate cut expectations through the end of the year.

Overall, the combination of strong technology leadership, encouraging rate cut expectations, and select corporate news allowed the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and DJIA to all set record highs this week, even as pockets of weakness persisted.

• Nasdaq Composite: +2.0% WTD

• S&P 500: +1.9% WTD

• DJIA: +1.0% WTD

• Russell 2000: +0.3% WTD

• S&P Mid Cap 400: -0.4% WT

Market Recap - Stocks Advance Modestly on Rate-Cut Bets and Mega-Cap Gains

The stock market posted modest gains this week as investors weighed a mix of corporate news, economic data, and increasingly cemented expectations for a September rate cut. 

The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a 1.1% gain, buoyed by strong performances in mega-cap technology names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged slightly, finishing 0.3% lower, while smaller-cap indices led to broader participation, with the Russell 2000 up 1.0% and the S&P MidCap 400 advancing 1.3%.

At its peak on Friday morning, the S&P 500 established an all-time high of 6,532.65, while the Nasdaq Composite set a record high around the same time at 21,878.81.

Mega-cap leadership remained pivotal. Alphabet’s antitrust ruling, which allows the company to retain its Chrome browser, provided a catalyst for gains in the communication services sector, helping it rise 5.1% on the week. Tech-heavy Nasdaq components also benefited from favorable earnings and the ongoing narrative of Fed policy support, driving the Information Technology sector slightly higher (+0.2%).

Defensive sectors offered mixed results amid the broader risk-on sentiment. The healthcare (+0.4%) and consumer staples (+0.3%) sectors posted modest gains, while the utilities sector (-1.1%) lagged. The energy sector (3.5%) finished lower while the financials sector (-1.7%) also lagged as softer labor data prompted concerns over future loan demands. Meanwhile, the consumer discretionary sector advanced 1.6%, supported by strong performances in Amazon and Tesla.

Economic data reinforced expectations for easing. Softer-than-expected August nonfarm payrolls (22K; Briefing.com consensus 78K) and private payrolls (+38K; Briefing.com consensus 90K), coupled with modest wage growth, supported the probability of a September rate cut, which has now reached 100% in the CME FedWatch Tool. At the same time, ISM services, ADP employment, and productivity data reflected a mixed labor and services backdrop, adding nuance to market sentiment.

Overall, the week highlighted mega-cap dominance alongside broad-based participation, with smaller-cap outperformance confirming investor confidence in the Fed’s forthcoming policy actions while navigating mixed corporate and macroeconomic signals.

• S&P Midcap 400: +1.3% WTD

• Nasdaq Composite: +1.1% WTD

• Russell 2000: +1.0% WTD

• S&P 500: +0.3% WTD

• DJIA: -0.3% WTD

Market Recap - New record highs reached, but little change for the week

The market spent the week toggling between fresh highs and a late-week bout of risk aversion.

After a soft Monday marked by profit-taking from the prior Friday’s records, momentum rebuilt Tuesday through Thursday, pushing the S&P 500 to back-to-back record intraday and closing highs. Friday reversed that tone: into a holiday-thinned tape, sellers leaned on mega-caps, semis, and select cyclicals, leaving all size cohorts softer and the week’s final session downbeat.

Leadership narrowed as the week progressed. Mega-cap tech and communication names did most of the lifting on the up days, evident in the market-weighted S&P 500 outperforming the equal-weight index on Thursday.

Semiconductors chopped around during the week, reacting to NVIDIA’s mixed print that featured headline beats but guidance that was merely in line and a sequential H20 downtick that was tied to export limits and no China sales. The group fell by the wayside on Friday, however, following a disappointing earnings report from Marvell. T he Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined 1.5% for the week after a 3.2% decline in Friday’s session.

Week Ending 08/29/2025 Retail was bifurcated: Kohl’s surged on an EPS beat, while Best Buy, Dick’s, Dollar General, and Five Below traded unevenly post-earnings. Energy quietly helped at the margin as crude held near $64–$65. Defensive sectors lagged early, then showed pockets of support into Friday’s consolidation.

Macro and policy inputs were steady enough to keep rate-cut odds anchored. The data mix skewed “not too hot”: Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.3% with a sizable net-exports contribution; durable orders and core capital goods firmed; jobless claims stayed historically low. Offsets arrived from housing sluggishness (new and pending sales) and a slump in Chicago PMI to 41.5. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge was sticky but not worse than feared—headline PCE ran 2.6% year over year and core 2.9%, both in line—so futures kept the probability of a 25 bp September move broadly in the 87–89% range.

Fed speak leaned cautiously dovish: New York Fed President John Williams reiterated a data-dependent path that could justify gradual cuts and attributed 40–50 bps of PCE to tariffs; Richmond’s Tom Barkin signaled a “modest adjustment”; and Fed Governor Christopher Waller explicitly backed a 25 bp cut in September with an expectation that there will be more cuts over the next three to six months.

Rates churned rather than trended. Early-week selling gave way to a midweek bull-steepening impulse (short yields falling faster than long), then a mild retrace into Friday. The 2-yr traded roughly 3.62–3.73% across the week, the 10-yr 4.21 4.28%, and the long bond hovered near 4.89–4.91%.

Company-specific headlines added texture. Keurig Dr Pepper slid after unveiling a €15.7 bln cash deal for JDE Peet’s and a plan to separate into a North American beverage company and a stand-alone coffee business. Caterpillar fell on Friday after f lagging tariff-driven margin pressure. Dell and Marvell’s post-earnings drops compounded semis’ weak finish. Alphabet and Meta underpinned communication services on up days, and Tesla extended gains early in the week. The institutional backdrop remained noisy—President Trump’s move to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook triggered legal pushback and an initial hearing without a ruling, with chatter about fast-tracking nominee Stephen Miran—but none of it materially shifted the September cut odds. Markets are closed Monday for Labor Day.

• Russell 2000: +0.2% for the week / +6.1% YTD

• S&P 500: -0.1% for the week / +9.8% YTD

• S&P 400: -0.1% for the week / +4.3% YTD

• Nasdaq: -0.2% for the week / +11.1% YTD

• DJIA: -0.2% for the week / +7.1% YTD

Market Recap - Fed Chair's Friday Address Offsets Choppy Week

The equity market finished the week with a modest risk-on tone, supported by small- and mid-cap strength and optimism across select cyclical sectors.

T he Russell 2000 surged 3.3% week-to-date and the S&P Mid Cap 400 climbed 2.6%, signaling broad support for domestically oriented stocks, while the DJIA rose 1.5%, finishing the week with fresh record highs, and the S&P 500 added 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite lagged slightly, retreating 0.6% week-to-date, reflecting ongoing headwinds for mega-cap technology.

Investor attention remained on Fed policy, with markets digesting a mix of dovish and hawkish signals. Markets surged on Friday after Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks hinted at a willingness to adjust policy if conditions warrant, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (non-voting FOMC member) emphasized that inflation remains elevated. The probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting fluctuated during the week but finished elevated, providing a cautiously supportive backdrop for equities.

Week Ending 08/22/2025 Small-cap and cyclical sectors led the advance. Consumer discretionary rose 1.3%, underscoring interest in sectors positioned to benefit from a potentially more accommodative policy stance. The financials (+2.1%), industrials (+1.8%), materials (+2.1%), and energy (+2.8%) sectors also contributed meaningfully to the week’s gains. Conversely, defensive and large-cap technology names lagged.

The information technology sector fell 1.6% and the communication services sector retreated 0.9%, reflecting continued rotation away from mega-cap and tech-heavy indices toward smaller and more cyclical stocks. Treasuries moved with the Fed-driven sentiment, as the 2-year note yield fell to 3.69% and the 10-year note settled to 4.26% by Friday, balancing elevated rate cut expectations against ongoing inflation concerns.

Overall, the week underscored a market navigating between optimism for potential Fed easing and caution over inflationary pressures. Mid and small-cap stocks, along with homebuilders and cyclical sectors, drove the gains, while mega-cap technology and defensive names underperformed. With month-end approaching, focus will likely shift to upcoming earnings, economic data, and any further Fed signals as traders position for the final stretch of August.

• Russell 2000 + 3.3% for the week/ +5.9% YTD

• S&P Mid Cap 400 + 2.6% for the week/ + 4.3% YTD

• DJIA +1.5% for the week/ +7.3% YTD • S&P 500 + 0.3% for the week/ +10.0% YTD

• Nasdaq Composite -0.6 for the week/ +13.3% YT

Market Recap - CPI Boosts Risks Appetite, PPI Checks Momentum

The equity market advanced modestly this week, buoyed by a combination of positive inflation data, resilient earnings, and continued rotation into smaller-cap and cyclical names.

The S&P 500 rose 0.9%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8%, and the DJIA outperformed with a 1.7% advance. Mid- and small-cap stocks led the way, with the S&P Mid Cap 400 climbing 1.6% and the Russell 2000 surging 3.1%, signaling renewed risk-on sentiment following the July CPI report.The S&P 500 rose 0.9%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8%, and the DJIA outperformed with a 1.7% advance. Mid- and small-cap stocks led the way, with the S&P Mid Cap 400 climbing 1.6% and the Russell 2000 surging 3.1%, signaling renewed risk-on sentiment following the July CPI report.

The major averages also reached fresh record highs this week. The S&P 500 set both intraday and closing record intraday and closing highs at 6,481.34 and 6,468.54, respectively. The Nasdaq Composite similarly reached intraday and closing record highs of 21,803.75 and 21,713.14, respectively, while the DJIA briefly notched an all-time intraday high of 45,203.52. These milestones were achieved amid optimism around a potentially friendlier interest rate environment and solid earnings momentum.

The CPI data, largely in line with expectations, provided the initial spark for this week’s rally. Total CPI increased 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%), while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%). These readings kept year-over-year headline inflation at 2.7% and core inflation at 3.1%, giving markets confidence in the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting and fueling a rotation toward sectors and stocks poised to benefit from a friendlier interest rate environment. T he rotation was particularly evident in the small-cap Russell 2000 and homebuilder stocks, with the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF posting a substantial 5.6% gain for the week. Consumer discretionary also saw notable momentum, up 2.5% WTD, reflecting optimism around lower borrowing costs and ongoing consumer demand. Health care continued to outperform, advancing 4.6% WTD, led by UnitedHealth and Eli Lilly, while communication services (+2.1%) and materials (+1.8%) also contributed positively. Mega-cap technology and semiconductors saw more muted gains.

The information technology sector was essentially flat (-0.1%), while the PHLX Semiconductor Index rose a modest 1.3%, as chipmakers balanced stronger AI-related demand with cautious outlooks for overseas markets. Energy (+0.5%), real estate (+0.2%), and financials (+1.2%) added incremental support, while defensive sectors like consumer staples (-0.8%) and utilities (-0.8%) lagged.

Midweek, the release of the July PPI report tempered some of the enthusiasm from the CPI-driven rally. The PPI for final demand jumped 0.9% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%), with the PPI less food and energy also rising 0.9% month-over-month, compared to an unchanged reading in June. These readings pushed year-over-year PPI growth to 3.3% (headline) and 3.7% (less food and energy), suggesting wholesale inflation pressures remain elevated. In response, markets modestly reduced expectations for the magnitude of the upcoming rate cut, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing the probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the September FOMC meeting declining slightly to 84.9% by Friday, down from 99.9% earlier in the week.

Fed speakers this week provided mixed signals, contributing to the nuanced market reaction: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent advocated for a 50-basis-point rate cut. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (FOMC voting member) cautioned against overreacting to a single month of data, emphasizing the need to discern which price increases are transitory. St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voting member) and San Francisco Fed President Daly (nonvoting member) noted that the PPI readings did not necessarily warrant a larger 50-basis-point cut, indicating a more measured approach would be considered at the September meeting. U.S. Treasuries fluctuated modestly in response to the interplay of CPI and PPI data, with rate cut expectations still elevated but slightly moderated. Yields on the 2-year note were essentially unchanged for the week at 3.76%, while the 10-year note ended the week slightly higher at 4.33%.

Overall, this week showcased a market balancing optimism around potential rate cuts with caution over inflationary pressures and sector rotation. Small and mid-cap stocks, along with homebuilders and health care, led the advance, while mega-cap technology lagged slightly, emphasizing a broader, risk-on environment that extended beyond the narrow mega cap leadership seen in prior weeks.

• Russell 2000 + 3.1% for the week/ +2.5% YTD
• DJIA +1.7% for the week/ +5.7% YTD • S&P Mid Cap 400 + 1.6% for the week/ + 1.7% YTD
• S&P 500 + 0.9% for the week/ +9.7% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite + 0.8% for the week/ +12.0%