Market Recap - Navigating Market Volatility – April 2025

Market Volatility – April 2025

New U.S. tariffs re-ignite stock market volatility. U.S. stock markets declined by –10.5% in total on Thursday and Friday in reaction to new U.S. tariffs that will impact trade with “virtually every country in the world”. The S&P 500 Index has now declined –17.3% since its all-time high of 6147 on February 19th. The volatility continued into Monday April 7th, with U.S. stocks declining as much as -5% in early trading.

The benefits of portfolio diversification have been evident during the selloff. While U.S. stocks have suffered in 2025, international stocks, bonds and some commodities have been more resilient, highlighting the value of diversification. 

We knew the tariffs were coming. Why is the stock market responding this way?

• Tariffs were larger than expected. A baseline tariff of 10% was enacted on foreign countries with a trade surplus with the U.S. Additional reciprocal tariffs, ranging from 11% to 50%, were levied on more than fifty countries that charge tariffs on U.S. imports. Reciprocal tariffs on some large U.S. trading partners include the Eurozone (20%), China (34%), Japan (24%), Vietnam (46%), and India (26%)1.

• Tariffs were not empty threats and appear to be a key piece of policy agenda. The tariffs that were forewarned were carried out, highlighting that they were not simply a negotiating tactic. Investors are now concerned tariffs could slow business spending and consumer demand, resulting in a period of slower economic growth and higher unemployment in the U.S. 

• Businesses and consumers may come under greater stress. The impact of recently enacted tariffs on U.S. corporations cannot be fully understood at this time. The uncertainty caused by new policies has caused analysts to reassess corporate earnings forecasts for 2025. Further, the short-term impact of tariffs on the price of goods and services for U.S. consumers is unknown.

How are tariffs affecting different asset classes, sectors, and regions?

• Growth and momentum-oriented stocks have underperformed. Areas of the market that performed well in 2024 have declined the most in 2025. While the S&P 500 has returned -13.4%, year-to-date, the “magnificent seven” stocks (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla) collectively declined -24% over the same period. 

• Higher yielding defensive sectors have outperformed. Higher yielding sectors like consumer staples (+1.3%) and utilities (-0.8%) have provided investors with better protection during the selloff. The yield factor (-4.7%) has outperformed year-to-date as many investors have shifted to a more defensive posture.

• Foreign stocks decoupled from U.S. stocks. International developed market stocks (MSCI EAFE Index) returned +1.6% outperforming the S&P 500, which returned -13.4% year-to-date, driven by a more favorable central banking environment abroad.

• Bonds have benefited from flight to quality. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index returned +3.7% year-to-date, reflecting the safe-haven demand for fixed income instruments.

What positive events could bring stability to markets?

Although the situation currently looks dire, there are some key developments to watch for that may turn the tide for U.S. equity markets. Key events to monitor include:

• Progress with tariff negotiations. It will be important to monitor how countries respond to the tariffs and negotiate with the U.S. There could also be potential for foreign companies to work directly with the U.S. government on making U.S. investments to avoid tariffs. It was reported on Friday, April 4 that Vietnam has approach the U.S. about negotiating a tariff deal. 

• Continued stability in U.S. economic data. New jobs created in March (+228,000) increased more than the forecast (+140,000) and were above the +117,000 jobs created in February. Interest rates have also declined in recent days, which may help lower borrowing costs, including mortgage rates. 

• Possible action by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) to calm markets. The last time U.S. stocks declined more than 10% over two trading days was during the COVID stock market decline in March 2020. At that time, the Fed acted quickly to cut interest rates and implement quantitative easing to provide liquidity and support the economy. Should tariff based volatility continue, the Fed may be compelled to take action to backstop the U.S. capital markets.

What actions should I take during this heightened market volatility?

• Review asset allocations. Recheck portfolio asset allocation to ensure it is appropriately diversified and aligned with the investor’s age, risk tolerance, and financial goals. 

• Rely on professional asset management. Professional portfolio managers are equipped to navigate volatility, identify undervalued opportunities, and make tactical adjustments to mitigate downside risk.

• Maintain discipline and a long-term perspective. Market declines vary in magnitude and frequency, but they have been common throughout history and are generally temporary. Staying invested with a well-diversified portfolio is the key to success. A disciplined, diversified, and informed approach should help investors navigate current market conditions and position for future opportunities.

Market Recap - Rally then Retreat Amid Tariffs Fear, Inflation Worries

This week, U.S. equity markets faced significant volatility, culminating in notable losses across major indices. 

The S&P 500, which closed above its 200-day moving average early in the week, declined by 1.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 2.6%.

A convergence of rising inflation, declining consumer confidence, and trade policy uncertainties amplified market volatility.

The Consumer Confidence Index showed a fourth consecutive decline, and the Expectations Index fell to its lowest level (65.2) in 12 years, with worries about future employment prospects and inflation pacing that downturn. Inflation data this week corroborated the worries after February's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation read, rose by 0.4%, bringing the annual rate to 2.8%.

Also, the final March University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment was marked down to 57.0 from the preliminary reading of 57.9. There was a large month-over-month drop in the Expectations Index, with consumers across all demographics and political affiliations expressing concerns about personal finances, business conditions, unemployment, and inflation.

Ongoing concerns about US trade policy also played a big role this week. President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported passenger vehicles starting April 3. He also said reciprocal tariffs will go on for all countries, but that the U.S. will be very lenient. 

Tech stocks led the retreat, but many names participated in this week's slide. The equal-weighted S&P 500 fell 1.2%. 

Four S&P 500 sectors registered gains while the remaining seven sectors logged declines ranging from 0.2% (financials) to 3.7% (technology). The risk-off bias this week led the consumer staples sector to log a 1.7% gain.

Market Recap - S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite Break Losing Streak Despite Headwinds

The stock market continues to contend with similar concerns to recent weeks. Namely, uncertainty pertaining to economic growth, corporate earnings, and tariffs.

Despite the headwinds, the S&P 500 (+0.5%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%) broke a four-week losing streak thanks to some rebound action from a short-term oversold condition. 

It wasn't just a mega cap push, either, the equal-weighted S&P 500 closed 0.7% higher than last Friday. 

Nonetheless, there were plenty of factors to fuel the market's persistent worries. The headline event this week was the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The committee held rates steady, leaving the federal funds target range unchanged at 4.25-4.50% in a unanimous vote.

Fed Governor Waller dissented—not on the rate decision itself, but on the pace of balance sheet reduction. His preference to maintain the current level of securities runoff was overruled as the committee opted to slow the monthly runoff of Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion starting April 1, while keeping mortgage-backed securities runoff unchanged at $35 billion.

The committee’s directive also acknowledged rising economic uncertainty while maintaining that the Fed remains attentive to both sides of its dual mandate.

The latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) complicates the narrative. The Fed lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.7% while simultaneously raising its PCE inflation projection from 2.5% to 2.7% (core PCE ticked up from 2.5% to 2.8%). Despite this, the median estimate for the fed funds rate held steady at 3.9%, implying an expectation for two rate cuts this year.

Weaker growth estimates paired with a steady inflation outlook and rate cut projections indicates the central bank is more concerned with stubborn inflation than slowing growth.

During his press conference, Fed Chairman Powell again said that there is no rush to adjust policy. He warned that it is "going to be very difficult to have a precise assessment of how much inflation is coming from tariffs."

He indicated that it's "kind of the base case" that inflationary pressures from tariffs would be transitory, adding that the last time tariffs were imposed, the increase in prices was transitory. 

On a tariff-related note, the market remains on high alert about the specter of reciprocal tariffs being announced on April 2.

Treasuries settled the week with solid gains. The 10-yr yield declined six basis points to 4.25% and the 2-yr yield declined seven basis points to 3.95%.

Market Recap - Inflation Cools, but Trade War Heats Up

It was another disappointing week for stocks. The market has been in a downtrend for a few weeks on the basis of growth concerns and tariff fears, which continued this week.

The S&P 500 broke below its 200-day moving average and entered correction territory (i.e., 10% from its February 19 high) while the Nasdaq Composite extended its position in correction territory. 

Right out of the gate on Monday, fears about economic growth percolated after President Trump said in an interview last weekend that the economy is going through a "period of transition" and he declined to answer directly if the U.S. will experience a recession.

Trade war tensions increased after President Trump announced that the US will impose a 50% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum imports, starting Wednesday, instead of the originally proposed 25%.

The escalation followed a retaliatory measure by Ontario, which imposed a 25% tariff on exports of electricity to the U.S. in response to the originally planned 25% tariffs on Canadian imports.

President Donald Trump also announced a potential 200% tariff on European beverage imports, including wines and spirits. This move was in response to the European Union's recent tariffs on American whiskey.

This week's inflation data was relatively positive, yet markets didn't respond in kind due to the understanding that inflation remains above the Fed's 2.0% target and trade policy may negatively impact future prints.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February showed inflation rising at a slower-than-expected pace, providing a measure of relief to markets after last month's hotter-than-expected reading. On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 2.8% versus 3.0% in January and core-CPI was up 3.1% versus 3.2% in January. The February Producer Price Index also contained some lower-than-expected headline prints.

Other data this week included a relatively low level of weekly jobless claims, along with a preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment survey for March, which dropped to 57.9 (Briefing.com consensus 65.6) from the final reading of 64.7 for February, marking the third straight drop in sentiment. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 79.4.

Mega cap stocks had an outsized impact on the broader equity market. Only two S&P 500 sectors settled in the green -- energy (+2.6%) and utilities (+1.9%) -- while the consumer staples (-4.3%), consumer discretionary (-3.7%), and communication services (-2.5%) sectors registered the largest declines.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -3.1% for the week / -2.5% YTD

• S&P 500: -2.3% for the week / -4.1% YTD

• S&P Midcap 400: -2.0% for the week / -6.2% YTD

• Nasdaq Composite: -2.4% for the week / -8.1% YTD

• Russell 2000: -1.5% for the week / -8.3% YTD

Market Recap - Growth Worries, Tariff Uncertainty Fuel Retreat

It was a rough week for the stock market. The major indices logged solid declines ranging from 2.4% to 4.1%. Growth concerns and tariff worries were the main driving forces again, along with some technical deterioration.

There's a through-line connecting growth concerns and tariffs also. If tariffs drive up inflation, the market may respond (and has responded in recent weeks) to the notion that the higher prices will end up sapping consumer demand.

The trade war heated up after 25% tariffs for Canada and Mexico went into effect and tariffs on China increased by 10% to 20%, and the countries announced subsequent retaliatory measures.

The 25% tariff for Canada and Mexico were revised, though, such that all USMCA compliant goods from Canada (~38%) and Mexico (~50%) will be exempt from tariffs until April 2, according to CNBC. That means nearly two-thirds of imported goods from Canada and roughly half of imported goods from Mexico will face a tariff now.

Growth concerns were further stoked by some soft earnings and guidance from the likes of Target (TGT) and others. Target warned that price increases are likely, which may impact consumer demand and lead to lower growth in earnings and in the economy. Target's CEO also highlighted that the consumer has been cautious already.

This week's economic releases also played into worries about the economy. The February ISM Manufacturing PMI showed a mix of decelerating activity, rising prices, and weakening employment for the manufacturing sector.

The ADP Employment Change Report for February was weaker than expected, yet the ISM Services PMI for February was stronger than expected.

Also, the February employment report was neither hot nor cold, but at the same time it wasn't just right for a market that needed to see stronger growth.

Nonfarm payrolls were up 151,000; the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% from 4.0%; average hourly earnings were up 0.3%; and the average workweek stuck at 34.1 hours.

Technicals were in play this week after the S&P 500 briefly dipped below its 200-day moving average. The Russell 2000 and Nasdaq Composite dropped further below their respective 200-day moving averages and further into correction territory.

Just about everything in the equity market participated in downside moves this week. Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were lower with the financial (-5.9%), consumer discretionary (-5.4%), and energy (-3.8%) sectors logging the biggest declines.

The defensive-oriented health care sector (+0.2%) was the only sector to close with a gain this week.

Treasuries closed with losses. The 10-yr yield rose nine basis points to 4.32% and the 2-yr yield settled unchanged at 4.00%.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -2.4% for the week / +0.6% YTD

• S&P 500: -3.1% for the week / -1.9% YTD

• S&P Midcap 400: -3.5% for the week / -4.3% YTD

• Nasdaq Composite: -3.5% for the week / -5.8% YTD

• Russell 2000: -4.1% for the week / -6.9% YTD

Market Recap - Growth Concerns, Tariff Talks, Geopolitics Fuel Corrective Action

The final week of February was marked by some corrective action in the major indices.

The Nasdaq Composite slumped 3.5%, turning negative for the year, and the S&P 500 logged a 1.0% decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ultimately registered a 1.0% gain this week after some recovery buying on Friday. The Dow was also negative heading into Friday.

Increased selling in the mega cap space led to the disproportionate price action in the Nasdaq Composite versus other major indices.

NVIDIA was a big drag in that respect after earnings failed to live up to high expectations. Shares dropped 7.1% this week.

Buy-the-dip approaches, which proved successful earlier in the month, stalled out this week. This fueled the unwinding of momentum trades, which was another contributing factor driving selling in NVDA. The initial trigger for the negative bias was inflation worries and growth concerns rooted in tariff proposals and efforts to cut government spending, along with soft economic data.

This week data includes the February Consumer Confidence Index, which featured a drop in the index from 105.3 to 98.3 (the largest monthly decline since August 2021) and a surge in average 12-month inflation expectations from 5.2% to 6.0%.

New home sales declined 10.5% month-over-month in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000, there was a jump in weekly initial jobless claims and the pending home sales index hit a record low in January.

Also, the Personal Income and Spending report for January showed welcome disinflation on a year-over-year basis in the core-PCE Price Index (the Fed's preferred inflation measure), yet there was a noticeable 0.5% month-over-month decline in real personal spending, which is going to be a big drag on Q1 GDP forecasts.

As a result, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for Q1 GDP was revised to a 1.5% contraction from 2.3% growth in the last estimate.

On the tariff front, President Trump announced that tariffs for Canada and Mexico will start March 4; and that an additional 10% tariff for China will go into effect the same day. That followed an indication that a 25% tariff for the EU will be announced soon.

There was also new developments on the geopolitical front that market participants were responding to. President Trump and Ukraine's President Zelenskyy had a heated meeting in the White House, leading Mr. Trump to tell Mr. Zelenskyy he is "gambling with World War III." Market participants were hopeful President Zelenskyy would sign a rare earths deal when he visited the White House, but that did not materialize.

Treasuries settled sharply higher in response to the growth concerns and tariff worries. The 10-yr yield sank 19 basis points this week, and 34 basis points in February, to 4.23%. The 2-yr yield settled 19 basis points lower this week, and 24 basis points lower this month, to 4.00%.

Crude oil fell back below $70/bbl, widening its February loss to $2.75, or 3.8%, in another manifestation of growth concerns that could impact demand.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.0% for the week / +3.1% YTD

• S&P 500: -1.0% for the week / +1.2% YTD

• S&P Midcap 400: -0.2% for the week / -0.8% YTD

• Nasdaq Composite: -3.5% for the week / -2.4% YTD

• Russell 2000: -1.5% for the week / -3.0% YTD

Market Recap - Record High, Followed by Profit-Taking

Markets were closed on Monday for President's Day. The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high (6,147) in first half of the week, driven by resilience to selling interest and the inclination to buy on any weakness.

The vibe shifted, though, when a consolidation trade rooted in profit-taking activity prevailed by the end of the week. Valuation concerns fueled the consolidation trade along with the loss of momentum in some of the biggest year-to-date winners. That induced chatter about the market possibly being at a near-term top, which in turn has curtailed buying interest.

Growth concerns were also in play following Friday's economic data.  The preliminary February S&P Global US Services PMI fell to contraction territory (i.e., below 50), the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for February dropped to 64.7, and existing home sales declined 4.9% month-over-month in January.

Disappointing fiscal Q1 and full-year guidance from Walmart (WMT) also contributed to the selling interest in the latter half of the week.

Mega cap stocks and small cap stocks saw the largest decline while the "rest" of the market held up okay. The market-cap weighted S&P 500 declined 1.7% from last Friday; the equal-weighted S&P 500 registered a 0.7% decline this week; the Russell 2000 fell 3.7%.

The weakness in the mega cap space led the S&P 500 consumer discretionary (-4.3%) and communication services (-3.7%) sectors, which house mega cap components, to register the largest declines among the 11 sectors. The defensive-oriented sectors like utilities (+1.4%), consumer staples (+0.9%), and healthcare (+1.1%) were some of the top performers.

Market participants were digesting more talk about tariffs, but took it in stride due to a view that tariffs are more of a bargaining chip than a permanent feature. President Trump said the auto tariff rate will be in the neighborhood of 25% starting April 2, and that he is also considering tariffs for pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -2.5% for the week / +2.1% YTD

• S&P 500: -1.7% for the week / +2.2% YTD

• Nasdaq Composite: -2.5% for the week / +1.1% YTD

• S&P Midcap 400: -3.0% for the week / -0.6% YTD

• Russell 2000: -3.7% for the week / -1.6% YTD

Market Recap - Mega Caps Support Index Gains

The major equity indices logged gains this week. Upside moves were supported by solid buying in the mega cap space.

The market-cap weighted S&P 500 jumped 1.5%.

The outperformance of mega cap shares was also apparent in S&P 500 sector performance. The information technology sector was the top performer by a decent margin, jumping 3.8%, followed by communication services (+2.0%). Both of which contain mega cap constituents.

Market participants were dealing with a lot of economic data, news about tariffs, and commentary from Fed Chair Powell.

Fed Chair Powell's semiannual testimony before Congress was this week and didn't feature any big surprises. He again said that there is no hurry to adjust the policy stance, repeating comments made at the conclusion of the January FOMC policy meeting.

On the tariff front, President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, which will go into effect on March 12 with Australia potentially receiving an exemption.

Also, President Trump's reciprocal tariff plan was seen as less economically provocative as feared. To wit, the tariffs won't be applied until April 1 at the earliest, and at that time will be applied on a case-by-case basis.

Economic releases were mixed:

The New York Fed's January Survey of Consumer Expectations showed one-year ahead inflation expectations unchanged at 3.0% (versus Friday's release of the February Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which showed year-ahead inflation expectations surging from 3.3% to 4.3%).

Total CPI was up 0.5% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year (versus 2.9% in December) while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.4% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year (versus 3.2% in December), which created more angst about inflation not making it back to the Fed's 2.0% target and the Fed itself not making its way back to cutting rates anytime soon.

The January PPI report was greeted with some relief on the basis that it should help keep the PCE Price Index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) in check after various components in the PPI report, like airfares and physician care, showed month-over-month declines.

The retail sales report for January was noticeably weak and the industrial production report for January showed growth without any help from manufacturing or mining output (i.e., cold weather drove a spike in the output of utilities, which was cranking to meet demand for heat).

Treasuries settled with modest gains. The 10-yr yield was one basis point lower than last Friday at 4.48% and the 2-yr yield dropped three basis points this week to 4.26%.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.6% for the week / +4.7% YTD

• S&P Midcap 400: -0.3% for the week / +2.5% YTD

• S&P 500: +1.5% for the week / +4.0% YTD

• Russell 2000: UNCH for the week / +2.2% YTD

• Nasdaq Composite: +2.6% for the week / +3.7% YTD

Market Recap - Tariff Talk, Earnings News, and Economic Data Fuels Declines

It was a busy week for stock market participants. The major indices ebbed and flowed, ultimately settling lower than last Friday.

The S&P 500 slid 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite logged a 0.5% decline.

The news cycle in the first half of the week was dominated by talk of tariffs. Participants learned last weekend that President Trump announced that the U.S. will be implementing a 25% tariff on imported goods from Canada and Mexico (but only a 10% tariff on imported Canadian energy) and a 10% tariff on imported goods from China. He also indicated to the press that tariffs for the EU will likely be implemented fairly soon.

Leaders from Canada and Mexico were able to strike a deal with the US to avoid tariffs for one month. Meanwhile, China said it will be imposing a 15% tariff on imports of coal and LNG from the U.S., and 10% tariffs on crude oil, agricultural machinery, and certain cars starting February 10. China also imposed further export restrictions on key minerals, such as tungsten, and said it will be starting an anti-monopoly investigation of Alphabet's Google.

The market interpreted China's retaliation as more postural than penal. Furthermore, the tariff talk has been viewed as more of a temporary negotiating tactic than a permanent feature.

There was also a slate of market-moving economic data to get through this week. The December JOLTS - Jobs Openings Report showed a stark drop in openings to 7.600 million versus an upwardly revised 8.156 million (from 8.098 million) in November; Services PMI readings for January out of China, Europe, and the U.S. were weaker-than-expected, fostering some growth concerns; the January Employment Situation Report featured a 0.5% increase in average hourly earnings, which may not bode well for inflation; and the preliminary February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey showed an increase in year-ahead inflation expectations to 4.3% (from 3.3%).

Rate cut expectations adjusted in response to the economic data and tariff news. The fed funds futures market now sees a 52.8% probability of a rate cut by the June FOMC meeting, down from 64.6% yesterday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Treasury yields also adjusted in response to the tariff news and data. The 2-yr yield settled four basis points higher at 4.28% and the 10-yr yield settled eight basis points lower at 4.49%.

The front of the curve was under pressure as the specter of higher inflation following the tariff talk and economic data will likely forestall future rate cuts by the Fed; the long end, which is more sensitive to inflation pressures, was actually a bit stronger (ironically) as participants mull the notion that demand will wane in the face of higher prices, hurting growth.

It was another big week for earnings news with results from Alphabet, which dropped 9.0%, and Amazon.com, which dropped 3.6%, headlining the calendar. Other notable names included Palantir Technologies, Qualcomm, Spotify, Dow component Merck, Estee Lauder, and PepsiCo.

Market Recap - Busy Week of Earnings, Economic Releases, and Market-moving News

The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a 0.3% gain this week while the S&P 500 declined 1.0%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6%, and the Russell 2000 logged a 0.9% loss.

The week started on a sharply lower note following weekend focus on a Chinese AI platform DeepSeek, which garnered popularity for being less resource-intensive than alternatives like ChatGPT. This called into question the competitiveness of companies that are powering the AI sector and it could alter capital spending plans if the DeepSeek model proves to be as good as advertised. 

NVIDIA dropped 17% on Monday, logging its largest single-day loss in market capitalization ever. Shares were 15.8% lower than last Friday by the end of the week. 

It was a busy week that featured earnings news from about 40% of the S&P 500 in terms of market capitalization, a decision by the FOMC, and influential economic releases.

Apple, which closed 5.9% higher this week, Microsoft, which declined 6.5% this week, Meta Platforms, which jumped 6.4%, and Tesla, which declined 0.5% this week, were some of the top names that reported quarterly results. IBM (+13.8%), Starbucks (+9.0%), Boeing (+0.3%), General Motors (-8.3%), and Lockheed Martin (-6.8%) were also among the headliners in terms of earnings news.  

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to leave the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50%. That was in-line with the decision widely expected by the fed funds futures market.

It was noted in the directive that "Inflation remains somewhat elevated." The last directive in December said the same. What was missing this time was the added statement in the December directive that, "Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective..."

Also noted in the January directive was that, "...labor market conditions remain solid." This messaging pointed to the Fed remaining inclined to wait and see what messages avail themselves in future data. 

Fed Chair Powell communicated that stance more than once during his press conference, noting right off the bat that, "With our policy stance significantly less restrictive than it had been, and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance."

There was some volatility in stocks and bonds in immediate response to these developments, but markets ultimately settled the day little changed from levels seen ahead of the 2:00 ET policy announcement. This was an indication that participants didn't see anything truly surprising in Wednesday's decision or in the Fed Chair's comments.

This week's economic lineup featured an encouragingly low level of initial jobless claims (207,000) for the week ending January 25 and a refreshingly strong 4.2% growth rate for personal spending in the fourth quarter, which was the best since Q1 2023.

Also, the core-PCE Price Index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) was up 2.8% year-over-year for the third month in a row following a 0.2% month-over-month increase.

Stocks sold off late Friday after the White House confirmed that 25% tariffs for Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff for China, will begin Saturday (February 1). The basis for the tariff actions were tied to immigration, trade deficit, and fentanyl issues.

It wasn't exactly breaking news as there were similar reports out on Thursday, but the added uncertainty heading into the weekend was enough to drive selling interest and quell any buy-the-dip action. There were subsequent reports hinting at behind-the-scenes negotiations that may lead to the tariff actions being called off or at least watered down, but that didn't help stocks much.

Treasuries had a volatile week, ultimately settling with gains. The 10-yr yield was six basis points lower than last Friday at 4.57% and the 2-yr yield was three basis points lower than last Friday at 4.24%. 

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.3% for the week / +4.7% YTD

• S&P Midcap 400: -1.2% for the week / +3.8% YTD

• S&P 500: -1.0% for the week / +2.7% YTD

• Russell 2000: -0.9% for the week / +2.6% YTD

• Nasdaq Composite: -1.6% for the week / +1.6% YTD